Market Viewpoints

2023 (10)

• December 7 An early Santa Claus rally; disinflation in 2024 (and beyond)
• October 31 “Spooky” equity markets?
• September 28 The fabled “soft landing” is still on
• August 31 China: “ailing” or “evolving”?
• July 28 Barbie Shines Bright; Bears Surrender and Disinflation Nudges the Economy
• June 12 S&P 500 Index in a “Bull Market”; US Federal Reserve set to pause
• April 27 “Fool in the Shower“ moment
• March 31 US Fed stays hawkish…markets don’t care
• February 28 “Inflationists” won the inflation debate in 2021, but…
• January 26 Skate to where the puck is going to be…not where it has been

2022 (10)

• December 9 “Baby It’s Cold Inside”
• October 28 Mid-term elections and a “Fed Pivot” on the horizon
• September 29 Peace by Christmas?
• August 31 “German irrationality” is Europe’s Achilles’ heel
• July 18 Germany’s post-WWII policy of “Change through trade” has had its day
• May 30 Were the 1970s really that bad?
• April 29 Markets Bet on Sharpest Pace of Fed Tightening Since 1988
• March 31 Japanese Yen loses more value than Russian Ruble during March
• February 25 Russia’s desire for a “buffer zone” could start a new Cold War
• January 28 Boomerang equity markets as the US Fed signals interest rate lift-off in March

2021 (10)

• December 9 What would Hans Gruber and Ophelia make of current bond yields?
• October 22 Coal comfort
• September 29 The AUKUS ruckus
• August 26 “Captain America” – homeward bound
• July 9 The case for Inflation has weakened but be happy the risk of deflation is off the table
• May 27 A high inflation print in April, but will the sequels disappoint?
• April 29 Inflation will return, the question is when
• March 31 Can the United States wean itself off stimulus?
• February 25 Herd immunity and rising bond yields
• January 28 Are the second Roaring ‘20s on their way?

2020 (10)

• December 3 V for Vaccine and a V-shaped recovery
• October 30 US election 2020: Will Trump do a Truman?
• September 30 Covid-19 “second wave”?
• August 27 The Stock Market is not the Economy
• July 11 US presidential transitions are generally a smooth affair, will the next one be as smooth?
• May 29 Is the Franco-German €500 billion Recovery initiative Europe’s “Hamiltonian moment”? Probably not
• April 30 The epidemiologists and their COVID-19 forecasting models: Trust but verify
• March 26 The global economy is in the ICU; fiscal help is on its way
• February 27 Sanders, the Pied Piper from Vermont
• January 29 From the delicate US-China trade deal to the year that will be

2019 (10)

• December 6 What a difference a year makes
• October 23 Quantitative Easing by any other name
• September 27 Germany “in recession”
• August 1 The Undeclared Currency war has begun
• June 30 Chernobyl, The Fed and Trump
• May 27 My way or the Huawei
• April 29 Who let the doves out?
• March 28 Brexit – In, out or limbo?
• February 26 What’s new with Chimerica?
• January 22 Of Brexit and a wall

2018 (12)

• December 20 The year that was and looking ahead
• November 27 UK and EU agree on political declaration. Now what?
• October 31 German Chancellor is now a ‘lame duck’ while Brazil turns right
• September 30 Chequers chucked, so what next?
• August 31 Patriotism or capitalism?
• July 30 “Free trader” America has had a largely protectionist past
• June 30 The social leg of the three-legged society stool
• May 25 New populist government puts Italy on a collision course with the EU
• April 30 Want a trade surplus? Trade with Mars
• March 29 Are we in for a US-China trade war?
• February 26 Italy needs a “pick me up”, and welcoming back the two-way market.
• January 29 Of government shutdowns, economic data and trade wars.

2017 (12)

• December 13 Penny post, Christmas cards and the markets
• November 24 Auf Wiedersehen, Frau Merkel?
• October 28 China strides ahead
• September 1 Trump and the art of the deal
• August 1 US Debt ceiling crisis looms
• July 1 Pride and Prejudice
• June 1 Wildcat Banking
• May 1 A Trump impeachment? Don’t bet on it
• April 1 Britain goes to the polls (again)
• March 1 Pension Tsunami
• February 1 Le Pen mightier than Macron?
• January 1 A new era begins

2016 (14)

• December 1 The (dot) plot thickens
• November 1 TRUMPED!
• November 1 Italy: A 5 star mess
• October 1 Gaslight
• September 1 Rising Yields
• August 1 Helicopter Money
• July 1 Le sofferenze
• June 22 The UK and Europe: An island apart
• June 1 Rebellious Demos
• May 22 “Banana” risk
• April 27 The ECB’s Schäuble problem
• March 24 When Spring came
• February 1 The Oil Sheikh­up
• January 26 Is it 2008 all over again

2015 (12)

• December 22 The shrinking middle class
• November 12 Houston we have ignition, prepare for Lift­-off
• October 12 Cash to the people: By helicopter or by cheque?
• September 1 What’s the worry? What’s the hurry?
• August 12 What comes first? Thanksgiving or a US interest rate hike
• July 1 Grexit averted? No, merely delayed
• June 12 Goodbye Greece? Not so fast…
• May 12 Greece: Syriza’s boat has run aground
• April 12 Greece: running on empty
• March 12 The FOMC dove spreads its wings
• February 12 Greece: The moment of truth
• January 12 Swiss Roll

2014 (12)

• December 12 Crude Awakening
• November 12 A trillion here, a trillion there…
• October 12 The Truman Show
• September 12 I’ll fetch what you wish and I’ll fetch more
• August 12 Not quite the summer doldrums
• July 12 Jobs surge in the US, but soft patches remain
• June 12 “Changing Lanes”
• May 12 On your marks, get set, No!
• April 12 To QE or not to QE
• March 12 Crimean and Cold War Jitters
• February 12 Icy January
• January 12 Keep Calm and Carry On

2013 (12)

• December 12 2013 – The year that was…
• November 12 Squirrel away your returns
• October 12 Who let the doves out?
• September 12 A September to Remember?
• August 12 By George, it’s a b(u)oy(ant market)
• July 12 Top Gun
• June 12 Delayed Spring; delayed correction?
• May 12 The Great Gatsby market
• April 12 Potemkin village
• March 12 Storia d’Italia: Caos e ingovernabilità
• February 12 Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall
• January 12 Down the Potomac; one ‘cliff’ at a time

2012 (12)

• December 12 Fiscal Cliff ahead, (Congress) men at work
• November 12 Obama vs. Romney: Down to the wire…
• October 12 Who’s afraid of the fiscal cliff?
• September 12 Bond (buying) to the rescue!
• August 12 The Eurozone has more issues than Vogue, but it has super Mario
• July 12 Great Expectations
• June 12 Hype is not Value
• May 12 A little less conversation
• April 12 Spring is in the air?
• March 12 Second helping or last orders?
• February 12 What a start!
• January 12 Santa Claus rally is encouraging but the economy is still the Grinch

2011 (4)

• December 12 ‘La dolce vita’ has soured
• November 12 European Summit deal: Trick or Treat?
• October 12 Should I stay or should I go?
• September 12 FOMC minutes give credence to additional QE and double dip fears suddenly look overdone